00 1.08 1.17 −0.52 1.01 0.91 6.51 Cement production (million tons)

 2005 2,305 100 254 69 49 1,012 143  2020 3,162 113 269 66 58 1,175 395  2050 4,518 131 273 52 59 1,197 686  CAGRa (%) 1.51 0.60 0.16 −0.61 0.41 0.37 3.55 Passenger transport (trillion passengers-km)  2005 27.6 8.1 5.3 1.3 0.8 1.9 1.1  2020 35.2 9.2 6.2 1.3 1.1 3.0 1.5  2050 74.3 10.7 7.5 1.1 2.7 13.2 5.4  CAGRa (%) 2.22 0.63 0.80 −0.45 2.63 4.44 3.61 Freight transport (trillion tons-km)  2005 17.1 4.6 2.2 0.3 1.5 2.3 0.7  2020 22.0 5.2 2.7 0.3 1.7 3.5 1.1  2050 43.8 6.0 3.7 0.2 4.4 SGC-CBP30 cost 9.8 3.6  CAGRa (%) 2.11 0.61 1.10 −0.31 2.44 3.25 3.76 aGrowth rate is calculated using the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2005 and 2050 Key assumptions on the availability of resources and technologies The model simulation is subject to assumptions on the availability of energy resources and key technologies. This section describes the model’s assumptions on the availability of renewable energy, nuclear power, and carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). The potential of solar and wind power depends on natural conditions such as insolation, wind, and geography. We evaluate the power Torin 1 cell line generation potentials of solar and wind by conducting a geographically explicit analysis. The detailed methodology for this approach is provided in Masui et al. (2010). The estimated total technical potential, after

considering the conversion efficiency and suitability of the land, is 166 PWh for solar and 47 PWh for wind (Fig. 2). The potential is broken into several grades Tozasertib solubility dmso by generation cost. In 2005, the generation cost for solar is much higher than STK38 that for wind. The cost of solar drops over time, however, and becomes competitive with that of wind in 2050. This cost reduction derives from reductions in technology costs assumed based on IEA (2010). Fig. 2 Technical potential of solar and wind worldwide The future bioenergy potential

is subject to various conditions such as land use, food demand, and agricultural productivity. A number of studies have evaluated the future bioenergy potential. We compare the global technical potential of bioenergy in 2050 estimated by previous studies. The estimated bioenergy potential in 2050 ranges broadly from 0.8 to 8.8 Gtoe at the low end of the scale to 11–35 Gtoe at the high end (Fig. 3). Here we assume a worldwide bioenergy potential of 8.7 Gtoe in 2050, the low-end estimate from Smeets et al. (2007). This value is on the high side of the low-end estimates and lower than the lowest of the high-end estimates (11 Gtoe). Smeets et al. Bioenergy crops include only those cultivated from surplus agricultural land gained by increasing efficiency of food production. Thus, according to Smeets et al.